Greg Polson previews Dubbo Race Sunday
The winners look well concealed at Dubbo Sunday but there will be eight winners at the end of the day, and we have done our best to find them.
Best Bet: Race 6 (1) Vital Verse
Next Best: Race 8 (2) Patrick May
Value Bet: Race 1 (6) Fanmalia
Race 1 CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Fanmalia (Race 1, No 6)
T: Rodney Northam
J: Rachael Murray (55.5kg)
Fanmalia did enough when third at Muswellbrook resuming over 1280m last start hitting the line and looks suited stepping up to the mile with the run under his belt. Arithmetic is finding it hard to get back into the winner’s stall but is racing consistently and is drawn to get all the favours in running from barrier one. A query on Spilia running out a strong 1600m but still one of the chances. Crimson Pearl next best.
Value Prices: (6) Fanmalia $3.40, (7) Arithmetic $3.60, (2) Spilia $5.50, (9) Crimson Pearl $9.80.
Race 2 CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Great Buy (Race 2, No 1)
T: Brett Robb
J: Clayton Gallagher (59kg)
Great Buy doesn’t win out of turn but gets his chance to return to the winner’s list peaking third up and down in grade after contesting a Country Championship Qualifier at Coonamble last start. Shame Warned was well beaten at Muswellbrook last time out but stays under notice on his close third at Moree resuming two back. Spiritual Power, Ocean Hero and Deshawn in the mix.
Value Prices: (1) Great Buy $2.70, (4) Shame Warned $4.20, (2) Spiritual Power $8.70, (8) Ocean Hero $8.90, (6) Deshawn $8.90.
Race 3 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2200 METRES)
Yak (Race 3, No 3)
T: Michael Lunn
J: Mikayla Weir (59kg)
Bit of a lottery this one. Yak was placed at Wellington over 2400m last start so no worries with the trip. Sea Of Flames in play after contesting provincial races last two. The Dark Knight the best weighted runner under the set weight conditions but only win was over 1500m. Pop’s Glory placed at the Gold Coast two back. Colville House another with claims.
Value Prices: (3) Yak $4.30, (11) Sea Of Flames $4.60, (2) The Dark Knight $5.80, (9) Pop’s Glory $7.30, (5) Colville House $8.20.
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)
Smart Lass (Race 4, No 9)
T: Brett Thompson
J: Kath Bell-Pitomac (57kg)
She’s 86-weeks between runs however the race form for the Brett Thompson-trained Smart Lass looks superior to her rivals and only needs to be somewhere near right to be the one to beat and a recent trial placing at Wellington suggests that may be the case. Ardstraw improved at her second run back from a break when runner up at Orange and any further improvement third up would see her in the finish.
Value Prices: (9) Smart Lass $2.30, (4) Ardstraw $2.90.
Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)
Down To Earth (Race 5, No 2)
T: Ashlee Grives
J: Ashleigh Stanley (59kg)
Down To Earth resumes for a new stable and although he hasn’t been seen for a year his race form including a Kensington third when trained by Anthony Cummings is many lengths superior to the field he strikes first up on Sunday. Blow Dart has to be respected on debut after winning successive trials at Scone. Amazonian Queen resumes without a trial but contested stronger races in her three starts to date.
Value Prices: (2) Down To Earth $2.80, (14) Blow Dart $3.00, (12) Amazonian Queen $5.30.
Race 6 MAIDEN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
Vital Verse (Race 6, No 1)
T: Kody Nestor
J: Anthony Cavallo (60kg)
Vital Verse has contested metropolitan and provincial races in his three runs this preparation including a runner up finish at Kembla resuming three back and gets his chance contesting a country maiden, close to a good thing for mine. Tank Attack for the quinella.
Value Prices: (1) Vital Verse $1.60, (13) Tank Attack $4.30.
Race 7 CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
Boom Boom Basil (Race 7, No 3)
T: Kody Nestor
J: Anthony Cavallo (57kg)
Boom Boom Basil is a Kody Nestor-trained three-year-old son of Foxwedge that must have had some issues having his third career start and his third preparation, but he did win a strong rating maiden at the track and distance only start last preparation. Disobedient resumes for Cameron Crockett and looked primed for a big run fresh winning her latest trial at Scone. Dalavin and Splasher both in play.
Value Prices: (3) Boom Boom Basil $3.50, (10) Disobedient $5.50, (4) Dalavin $8.30, (5) Splasher $9.50.
Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Patrick May (Race 8, No 2)
T: Leo Harland
J: Dylan Stanley (62.5kg)
Patrick May hasn’t been disgraced in stronger races last few starts and is the one to beat back to benchmark 58 company with 58.5kg after the claim considering he carried 60kg to victory in similar grade five runs back. Velaro has to lump 63.5kg but is another one well suited back in grade. Factorize for the wider exotics.
Value Prices: (2) Patrick May $2.70, (1) Velaro $4.50, (13) Factorize $8.80.