Dashing Dubbo Preview 11/06/21
****DASHING DUBBO PREVIEW****
with NEIL EVANS
CITY OF DUBBO TURF CLUB MEETING
KING HALLS JEWELLERS SILVER GOBLET &
RSL WINTER SERIES QUALIFYING RACE DAY
Friday Jun 11, 2021
11L Merrilea Rd, DUBBO, NSW 2830
Mail: PO Box 536 DUBBO, NSW
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R1 1. BEAU FACTOR* Expect: $2.60 - $2.75; My Early Rating: $2.10
R7 2. CASTLEBAR ROAD** Expect: $3.45 - $3.60; My Early Rating: $2.15
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R4 11. LAPSEKI*** Expect: $13.00 - $15.00; My Early Rating: $5.60
R5 8. WISHFILLY** Expect: $7.00 - $7.50; My Early Rating: $4.15
R6 6. SPILIA* Expect: $9.50 - $10.00; My Early Rating: $5.80
**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:
R6: Box Exacta: 5,6,7
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
Cameron Crockett**
Kody Nestor**
Brett Cavanough*
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Anthony Cavallo**
Aaron Bullock*
1st Race @ 12.19pm
ALL Races carry a BOBS Silver Bonus available up to $9625.00
*Track likely Heavy 9 and Rail out +3m from 900m to 400m then True the Remainder
*RACE 1 @ 12.19pm DUBBO RSL SPORTIES 3YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 56kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
A strong and feature card starts with the maiden sprinters, and we should get an early pattern read on a heavy surface. Local three-year-old gelding 1. BEAU FACTOR (Kody Nestor/Anthony Cavallo; 59kg) showed plenty of fight resuming, picking up and finding the line after being under pressure on the turn. Back on his home track, and bred to handle the ground.
*MAIN DANGERS: Plenty of them headed by three-year-old Scone filly 7. Velvet Star who gets blinkers on and a crucial 3kg claim at her third start. Improving three-year-old filly 8. Mighty Minnie has a fitness edge and placed in her last couple; while included in exotics three-year-old 11. Padrone who can improve with a significant jockey change, and a soft draw.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: BEAU FACTOR to WIN
*RACE 2 @ 12.54pm KINGS HALL JEWELLERS SILVER GOBLET 2YO HCP (1100m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
The way promising Scone gelding 1. LIMITED REALITY (Cameron Crockett/Aaron Bullock; 59.5kg) destroyed his rivals on debut at Gunnedah suggests he only has to get through the conditions to win the Goblet. Draws well, with a stronger rider on top, and has the tactical speed to take advantage of this smaller field. Only concerned by his sire being a pure firm tracker.
MAIN DANGERS: Home track filly 7. Watch Me Rumble was an impressive trial winner, although some query on debut in these conditions; while big watch on metro-based Sooboog gelding 2. Monster Bisque who debuts off two soft track trials.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: LIMITED REALITY to WIN & trifecta: 1,7/1,2,7/1,2,7
*RACE 3 @ 1.29pm CAN ASSIST DUBBO OPEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Good strong sprint which will likely prove a solid form reference. Little doubt Scone four-year-old 5. GOLDEN AVENGER (Cameron Crockett/Reece Jones a0kg; 55kg) is the most progressive and best weighted runner in the race, dropping a hefty 6.5kg from a dominant BM 66 win here second-up. Still not totally convinced about him on a heavy track and being drawn inside, so it's all about the price you take.
MAIN DANGER:: Stablemate four-year-old mare 6. Fox Spirit finished best to score a smart win resuming, and only other career win from 11 starts came second-up. Tough six-year-old 2. Another Sin hasn't run on in his last couple, but this is easier and the blinkers come off. Yet another Scone visitor 3. Bryan's Babe was a strong finishing BM 88 winner three runs back, and deep into the prep can thrive in ground she enjoys.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: GOLDEN AVENGER to WIN & Box Trifecta: 2,3,5,6
*RACE 4 @ 2.04 MARK HUGHES FOUNDATION APPRECIATION MAIDEN PLATE (1300m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:
Another very testing sprint at set weights, with most unproven in this sort of ground. Under-rated three-year-old Scone filly 11. LAPSEKI (Brett Cavanough/Matthew Palmer; 57kg) will likely go around at big odds, but she can hit a peak fourth-up back in distance and 25 days between runs. Will settle well back behind a solid tempo, and doubt anything will be stronger on the line.
*MAIN DANGERS: Rosehill three-year-old gelding 3. Lucky To Win is rock hard fit and a clear threat. Comes back from stronger metropolitan and provincial grade, although still looks a shade under the odds carrying this weight. Keep safe consistent three-year-old 6. Saint Kitts who has fought on well in his last couple, and bred to handle the going. Provincial three-year-old 1. Flying Scotsman gets the blinkers removed fourth-up, although a query first time in heavy ground; while both 8. Are You Certain and 13. Silverdeel can be included in wider exotics.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: LAPSEKI Each Way & First Four: 1,3,6,11/1,3,6,8,11,13/1,3,6,8,11,13/1,3,6,8,11,13
*RACE 5 @ 2.39pm DUBBO RSL CLUB RESORT WINTER COUNTRY CLASSIC QUALIFIER FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
The first of the feature Winter Country Classic qualifiers for the girls, and in an extremely open race, there's confidence about home track four-year-old 8. WISHFILLY (Michael Lunn/Ms Casey Waddell a2kg; 57.5kg) making it three straight at big odds. Has taken control of her last two in dominant fashion, and weight increase off-set by a good 2kg-claiming pilot. Thrives on rain-affected ground, and is drawn to stay off the fence.
*MAIN DANGERS: A stack of them headed by tough four-year-old mare 6. Know Where To Look who has been banging on the door for much of the prep. Has been right behind the winner in her last two, and a wider draw is no concern. Must include improving five-year-old 5. Boom Queen who is looking for this trip, and backs up quickly after chasing home a smart one here. Local five-year-old 2. Dusky Damsel gets out to a more suitable distance, with a 3kg claim to off-set the weight; while included in exotics 7. Owhata Crumpet; and at bigger odds 12. Rubel third-up off a nine week freshen-up.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: WISHFILLY Each Way & First Four: 5,6,8/2,5,6,7,8,12/2,5,6,7,8,12/2,5,6,7,8,12
*RACE 6 @ 3.14pm DUBBO RSL CLUB RESORT WINTER COUNTRY CLASSIC QUALIFIER COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Now the boys get their turn, and there's each-way chances galore in another wide market. Under-rated Gulgong five-year-old 6. SPILIA (Brett Thompson/Ms Mikayla Weir; 59.5kg) can land a long overdue third career win. Has had little or no favours getting home late in his last two, and made up plenty of ground on Wishfilly here two runs back so watch for that form reference to hold up.
*MAIN DANGERS: Scone five-year-old 7. Nowyunomi is bursting to win a second career race at good odds. Has hit the line to miss narrowly in his last two, although still to be proven in ground this heavy. Tough local six-year-old 5. Skullerharderson has been finding the line hard before being given an easy kill in a weak Picnic race. Won his only previous start in heavy going, and rarely runs a bad one. Lightly raced three-year-old 4. Prince Akeem takes the next step after a strong maiden win at only his second start, and has spent all his brief career so far on rain-affected tracks. Home track four-year-old 2. Blackadder has beaten all but the winner in two of his last three, but a clear risk in this ground under the weight.
Likely Tempo: Solid
How to play it: SPILIA Each Way & Box Exacta: 5,6,7
*RACE 7 @ 3.54 BEN RAFFERTY AIR & ELECTRICAL DUBBO DASH CLASS 1 HCP (1100m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Two runners both third-up will likely battle for favouritism in the Dubbo Dash. Lightly raced local four-year-old gelding 2. CASTLEBAR ROAD (Dar Lunn/Anthony Cavallo; 59kg) is on the rise and looms as the one to beat. Came off a four-week break to trounce the opposition here in heavy ground producing superior acceleration from the 300m. This isn't much stronger, and set to win again.
*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive Scone five-year-old 1. Fifteen Rounds charged home from a mile back second-up in a handy Class 1, and boasts the best finishing burst in the race. Only one win from 18, but placed a further seven times, although a concern in the ground given he's never raced on heavy and placed only once from 10 in soft going. Both improving three-year-old filly 4. Exotic Enterprise fifth-up; and four-year-old mare 9. Missile Rain first-up off a nice trial; are knock-out chances.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: CASTLEBAR ROAD to WIN
*RACE 8 @ 4.34pm MACQUARIE HOME STAY BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:
Deep and open mile to round out the meeting. Talented four-year-old Narromine mare 2. WILD ROCKET (Kylie Kennedy/Clayton Gallagher; 60kg) was strong late in the Gunnedah Cup, and is hard fit well into the prep. Up sharply in weight, but all her best form is on rain-affected going, and she will relish getting back on a much bigger track.
*MAIN DANGERS: Reliable five-year-old 1. Herzegovina has won two of his last three, and kept going strong to win a slightly weaker BM 74 12 days ago. The 4kg claim has saved him being weighted right out of the contest, and with a sound wet track record, is way over the odds. Progressive three-year-old 7. Beckford steps up from a flashing second-up BM 58 win. Honest five-year-old 5. Slatey Bay loomed up and looked home in a weaker race here seven days ago, and while this is a significant step up in quality, the wetter the better. Improving four-year-old 3. Eiger also comes through a fair closing effort in the Gunnedah Cup. Much stronger rider goes on here, although a real query getting back from a low draw in these conditions. Keep safe five-year-old 12. Magic Charlee who went to Randwick last start after a dominant BM 58 win, and did his best work late in a good quality Highway; while including lightly raced four-year-old 11. Toulon Factor who was a dominant CL2 winner two starts back, and drops in weight.
Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid
My Betting Attack: WILD ROCKET to WIN and Box Exacta: 1,2,7
Pay Them a Visit:
www.kingshall.com.au - 180 Macquarie St, DUBBO
www.sportiesdubbo.com.au - 101 - 103 Erskine St, DUBBO
www.markhughesfoundation.com.au
www.dubborsl.com.au - 178 Brisbane St, DUBBO
www.macquariehomestay.com.au - 1 Tony McGrane Place, DUBBO
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail
DUBBO RACING
#WhereYouCanWinFromAnywhere
Next Meeting:
Sunday Jun 27, 2021
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